Report: Dallas-Fort Worth won't see big home price declines 11:08 PM CDT on Thursday, April 10, 2008 By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News stevebrown@dallasnews.com
While North Texas' housing market decline has accelerated in recent months, analysts are still betting that the Dallas-Fort Worth area won't see measurable price declines. Indeed, the latest report from mortgage insurance firm PMI Group says that D-FW is one of the last places in the country likely to see a drop in home prices during the next couple of years. There's less than a 1 percent chance that home prices will fall here, according to PMI's spring risk index report, which was released Thursday. At the same time, PMI says that 13 of the nation's top housing markets have more than a 60 percent likelihood of home price declines. Full Story
Friday, April 11, 2008
National Foreclosure Statistics
National Foreclosure Statistics - This Wall Street Journal article shows how major metro areas are faring against the national average for foreclosures.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Housing Bubble
Housing Bubble Cartoon - YouTube Cartoon
From the Housing Bubble Blog
The Dallas Morning News reports from Texas. “In the Dallas-Fort Worth area…at the end of February, about 43,000 homes were for sale in the Realtors’ MLS. That’s up only about 2,000 listings from February 2006. North Dallas and the Park Cities, which have so far seemed bullet-proof to the housing downturn, both saw a 28 percent jump in home listings during the first two months of 2008 compared with the same period of 2007.”
‘‘There are 150 houses over $1 million in the Park Cities area, and they are not moving as swiftly,’ said longtime Dallas real estate agent Virginia Cook. ‘There are some speculative houses that are $15 million.’”
“It is unclear how many of the more than 19,000 homes foreclosed on in the Dallas-Fort Worth area last year are still on the market. Also, there are almost 10,000 unsold new houses on the market in North Texas. Some analysts have said builder price cuts on these properties have been a significant drag on the pre-owned home market.”
“During the first two months of 2008, median home prices in North Texas fell 2 percent to $138,000, according to the latest statistics from the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems. That’s down from a peak of about $155,000 last August.”
“For all of 2007, total pre-owned home sales were down about 8 percent last year in North Texas, ending a string of record sales totals.”
“‘The bottom part of the market is pretty overbuilt right now,’ said D’Ann Petersen, a business economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. ‘So we have seen some pretty heavy discounts on those as builders try to get that inventory down.’”
The Star Telegram. “North Texas new-home sales during the first three months of the year dropped 31 percent from first quarter 2007, according to figures released Thursday.” “The drop in sales has prompted builders to pull back on construction: Builders started 5,207 homes during the quarter, down 35.3 percent from the 8,053 started in the first three months of 2007 and less than half the 12,370 starts in first quarter 2006, according to the report.”
“Construction this year will be well below the record of nearly 50,000 home starts in 2005 and 2006.”
“‘The Texas market in general I would not necessarily say is strong, but relative to other markets, it is in much better shape,’ said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director at Real IQ.”
The Pegasus News. “Residential foreclosures continued to rise across North Texas this month, with Denton County’s foreclosure rate 40 percent higher than April of last year, according to recent statistics.”
“April foreclosures rose more sharply in Denton County than any of the other 10 North Texas counties surveyed, leading by at least 17 percent, according to Foreclosure Listing Service, Inc.”
“‘A lot of people went into home ownership who shouldn’t have,’ said Bernard Weinstein, director of the center for economic development and research.”
“Weinstein said many people bought homes in 2006 with ‘teaser’ interest rates. Weinstein said 25 percent of all North Texas loans in 2006 involved such a rate and foreclosures will rise even higher in 2009 when homeowners will face an increased interest rate.”
“Real estate agent Brad McKissack said most foreclosures were in areas of new development along the Highway 380 corridor between Aubrey and Frisco. McKissack said his realty has noticed the foreclosure rate in Denton County since September 2007, but the number of foreclosures in Tarrant and Dallas counties remains higher.”
“‘I still think we will see them in abundance over the next two to three months,’ he said.”
The Amarillo Globe News. “Amarillo’s median home prices rose 11 percent, comparing sales in the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period in 2007, according to National Association of Realtors data.”
“‘An 11 percent change in a quarter, that could just be a volatility issue,’ Amarillo economist Karr Ingham said, referring to Amarillo’s increase.”
“Better to compare longer trends, the economy watchers agreed. And those show Amarillo has seen smaller - but steady - home price gains, they said.”
“Huh? Smaller gains are better?”
“‘From my standpoint, as a matter of interpretation, I would not care to see 10 or 11 percent increases in home prices, year in and year out, for any sustained level of time,’ Ingham said. ‘And the reason is household incomes aren’t going up that rapidly.’”
“‘Prices going up that fast - and believe me they have in many markets - are the reason they’re crashing now. For home buyers, you have an ever-increasing percentage of your household income going toward your housing expenses. That’s clearly not sustainable over a long period of time,’ he said.”
“Lenders have tightened restrictions everywhere in reaction to the subprime crisis, so buyers shopping for a loan should expect more scrutiny. Builders have reacted by starting fewer speculative homes - those not pre-sold - to reduce the inventory they carry, Texas Panhandle Builders Association Executive Director Lew Bradshaw said.”
“‘I think it’s probably just smart business sense,’ he said. ‘The ones that were building 10, 12 specs at a time, they’re doing five or six, which is smart.’”
The Express News. “The national economic downturn has hit city government. While the effects aren’t fully known, the sluggishness that some label a recession will figure prominently in upcoming discussions about the budget year that starts in the fall.”
“While cities that San Antonio measures itself against face severe budget shortfalls and layoffs, the picture locally is sobering but not nearly as bleak, City Manager Sheryl Sculley said.”
“But she acknowledged that the community’s galloping growth of the past few years, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank’s Business-Cycle Index, has slowed to a crawl in ways that will affect the 2009 budget.”
“Records show new residential building permits came in 53 percent under what the city had projected for the first quarter of 2008. As a result, city officials revised downward by 40 percent the number of new home construction permits it expects to issue for the year.”
“‘It looks like we went from a 100-yard sprint to a 100-yard jog, but at least we are still moving,’ District 10 Councilman John Clamp said. ‘Our rate of growth has decelerated.’”
“‘San Antonio is holding its position as the national and world economies go into the tank,’ said Trinity University economics professor Richard Butler. ‘We don’t live on an island, isolated from all that. But the ground we are on right now is pretty high.’”
The American Statesman. “Austin-area builders continue to cut back on the construction of homes, with first-quarter starts falling to their lowest levels since 2003. Starts for new homes declined 33 percent to 2,271, compared with first quarter of 2007, according to Residential Strategies Inc.”
“The number of new-home closings dropped 24 percent to 3,125. A similar slowdown is occurring in sales of existing homes, which dropped 10 percent to 1,553 in February, compared with the year-ago period.”
“‘Because of what’s happening nationally, we continue to see the deterioration of the market,’ said Mark Sprague, Austin partner for Residential Strategies. Though ‘we’re hearing about the market slowing down dramatically here, we don’t have a clue compared to the rest of the country. We’re still in our third-best year ever. … But it’s definitely off because of the national mortgage meltdown.’”
“Fewer homes are being built in Central Texas also because cash-strapped large-production national home builders are battling high inventories in other markets and are cutting back even in relatively strong areas such as Austin.”
“‘They’ve cut back across the board,’ said Ben Loftsgaarden, who follows economic trends for Angelou Economics.”
“Plans for an upscale, 1,400-home subdivision near Parmer Lane and the Texas 45 North toll road have been called off because of a national pullback by struggling Dallas-based home builder Centex Homes.”
“Centex has canceled its contract to buy 465 acres of the 750-acre Pearson family ranch, where it planned to spend $275 million to build one of the largest master-planned communities in Central Texas. The Pearson Place project was announced in February.”
“‘It was part of a larger strategic review of the company nationally,’ Centex’s director of strategic and operational marketing, Tara Thomason, said of the decision.”
“Centex isn’t the only company pulling back in Central Texas, which began as early as 2006, said Eldon Rude, local director for residential real estate market researcher Metrostudy.”
“‘The largest public builders are continuing to face significant challenges around the country, especially in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida,’ Rude said. ‘As a result of that, they are looking to all of their divisions all over the country to take part in their move to conserve funds, and so even in some of the healthier markets, like Austin, they are looking to local divisions to buy less land.’”
“A high-profile arts-themed hotel and condominium project will be the first major project for the long-neglected Waller Creek area of downtown, developers announced Wednesday.”
“The 21c Museum Hotel and 21c Museum Residences, originally planned for Third and Brazos streets downtown, will be built on a new, larger site at East Cesar Chavez and Red River streets, along the banks of the creek.”
“‘I’m drinking the Kool-Aid about the whole Waller Creek area,’ said Steve Poe, CEO of the Poe Companies, which is one of the partners in the project. ‘This is the natural progression for the city. People gravitate towards parks and water, and that’s what this is.’”
“The hotel will be followed by a 49-story condominium tower with 295 residential units, and in the future, a 425,00-square-foot tower with offices and shops or more housing, according to the Poe Companies.”
“The condo tower would rank among the tallest being built or planned amid downtown’s residential building boom. A 55-story condo tower, the Austonian, is under construction at Second Street and Congress Avenue. And local developer Tom Stacy plans a 66-story hotel/condominium tower near Sixth and Brazos streets.”
“Austin City Council Sheryl Cole said the 21c project ‘begins to fulfill the promise that Waller Creek will become a world class destination. It is wonderful to already see a major return on our investment.’”
“‘This is like that proverbial place in Central Park in New York City,’ Poe said. ‘That’s what we’re creating.’”
From the Housing Bubble Blog
The Dallas Morning News reports from Texas. “In the Dallas-Fort Worth area…at the end of February, about 43,000 homes were for sale in the Realtors’ MLS. That’s up only about 2,000 listings from February 2006. North Dallas and the Park Cities, which have so far seemed bullet-proof to the housing downturn, both saw a 28 percent jump in home listings during the first two months of 2008 compared with the same period of 2007.”
‘‘There are 150 houses over $1 million in the Park Cities area, and they are not moving as swiftly,’ said longtime Dallas real estate agent Virginia Cook. ‘There are some speculative houses that are $15 million.’”
“It is unclear how many of the more than 19,000 homes foreclosed on in the Dallas-Fort Worth area last year are still on the market. Also, there are almost 10,000 unsold new houses on the market in North Texas. Some analysts have said builder price cuts on these properties have been a significant drag on the pre-owned home market.”
“During the first two months of 2008, median home prices in North Texas fell 2 percent to $138,000, according to the latest statistics from the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems. That’s down from a peak of about $155,000 last August.”
“For all of 2007, total pre-owned home sales were down about 8 percent last year in North Texas, ending a string of record sales totals.”
“‘The bottom part of the market is pretty overbuilt right now,’ said D’Ann Petersen, a business economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. ‘So we have seen some pretty heavy discounts on those as builders try to get that inventory down.’”
The Star Telegram. “North Texas new-home sales during the first three months of the year dropped 31 percent from first quarter 2007, according to figures released Thursday.” “The drop in sales has prompted builders to pull back on construction: Builders started 5,207 homes during the quarter, down 35.3 percent from the 8,053 started in the first three months of 2007 and less than half the 12,370 starts in first quarter 2006, according to the report.”
“Construction this year will be well below the record of nearly 50,000 home starts in 2005 and 2006.”
“‘The Texas market in general I would not necessarily say is strong, but relative to other markets, it is in much better shape,’ said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director at Real IQ.”
The Pegasus News. “Residential foreclosures continued to rise across North Texas this month, with Denton County’s foreclosure rate 40 percent higher than April of last year, according to recent statistics.”
“April foreclosures rose more sharply in Denton County than any of the other 10 North Texas counties surveyed, leading by at least 17 percent, according to Foreclosure Listing Service, Inc.”
“‘A lot of people went into home ownership who shouldn’t have,’ said Bernard Weinstein, director of the center for economic development and research.”
“Weinstein said many people bought homes in 2006 with ‘teaser’ interest rates. Weinstein said 25 percent of all North Texas loans in 2006 involved such a rate and foreclosures will rise even higher in 2009 when homeowners will face an increased interest rate.”
“Real estate agent Brad McKissack said most foreclosures were in areas of new development along the Highway 380 corridor between Aubrey and Frisco. McKissack said his realty has noticed the foreclosure rate in Denton County since September 2007, but the number of foreclosures in Tarrant and Dallas counties remains higher.”
“‘I still think we will see them in abundance over the next two to three months,’ he said.”
The Amarillo Globe News. “Amarillo’s median home prices rose 11 percent, comparing sales in the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period in 2007, according to National Association of Realtors data.”
“‘An 11 percent change in a quarter, that could just be a volatility issue,’ Amarillo economist Karr Ingham said, referring to Amarillo’s increase.”
“Better to compare longer trends, the economy watchers agreed. And those show Amarillo has seen smaller - but steady - home price gains, they said.”
“Huh? Smaller gains are better?”
“‘From my standpoint, as a matter of interpretation, I would not care to see 10 or 11 percent increases in home prices, year in and year out, for any sustained level of time,’ Ingham said. ‘And the reason is household incomes aren’t going up that rapidly.’”
“‘Prices going up that fast - and believe me they have in many markets - are the reason they’re crashing now. For home buyers, you have an ever-increasing percentage of your household income going toward your housing expenses. That’s clearly not sustainable over a long period of time,’ he said.”
“Lenders have tightened restrictions everywhere in reaction to the subprime crisis, so buyers shopping for a loan should expect more scrutiny. Builders have reacted by starting fewer speculative homes - those not pre-sold - to reduce the inventory they carry, Texas Panhandle Builders Association Executive Director Lew Bradshaw said.”
“‘I think it’s probably just smart business sense,’ he said. ‘The ones that were building 10, 12 specs at a time, they’re doing five or six, which is smart.’”
The Express News. “The national economic downturn has hit city government. While the effects aren’t fully known, the sluggishness that some label a recession will figure prominently in upcoming discussions about the budget year that starts in the fall.”
“While cities that San Antonio measures itself against face severe budget shortfalls and layoffs, the picture locally is sobering but not nearly as bleak, City Manager Sheryl Sculley said.”
“But she acknowledged that the community’s galloping growth of the past few years, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank’s Business-Cycle Index, has slowed to a crawl in ways that will affect the 2009 budget.”
“Records show new residential building permits came in 53 percent under what the city had projected for the first quarter of 2008. As a result, city officials revised downward by 40 percent the number of new home construction permits it expects to issue for the year.”
“‘It looks like we went from a 100-yard sprint to a 100-yard jog, but at least we are still moving,’ District 10 Councilman John Clamp said. ‘Our rate of growth has decelerated.’”
“‘San Antonio is holding its position as the national and world economies go into the tank,’ said Trinity University economics professor Richard Butler. ‘We don’t live on an island, isolated from all that. But the ground we are on right now is pretty high.’”
The American Statesman. “Austin-area builders continue to cut back on the construction of homes, with first-quarter starts falling to their lowest levels since 2003. Starts for new homes declined 33 percent to 2,271, compared with first quarter of 2007, according to Residential Strategies Inc.”
“The number of new-home closings dropped 24 percent to 3,125. A similar slowdown is occurring in sales of existing homes, which dropped 10 percent to 1,553 in February, compared with the year-ago period.”
“‘Because of what’s happening nationally, we continue to see the deterioration of the market,’ said Mark Sprague, Austin partner for Residential Strategies. Though ‘we’re hearing about the market slowing down dramatically here, we don’t have a clue compared to the rest of the country. We’re still in our third-best year ever. … But it’s definitely off because of the national mortgage meltdown.’”
“Fewer homes are being built in Central Texas also because cash-strapped large-production national home builders are battling high inventories in other markets and are cutting back even in relatively strong areas such as Austin.”
“‘They’ve cut back across the board,’ said Ben Loftsgaarden, who follows economic trends for Angelou Economics.”
“Plans for an upscale, 1,400-home subdivision near Parmer Lane and the Texas 45 North toll road have been called off because of a national pullback by struggling Dallas-based home builder Centex Homes.”
“Centex has canceled its contract to buy 465 acres of the 750-acre Pearson family ranch, where it planned to spend $275 million to build one of the largest master-planned communities in Central Texas. The Pearson Place project was announced in February.”
“‘It was part of a larger strategic review of the company nationally,’ Centex’s director of strategic and operational marketing, Tara Thomason, said of the decision.”
“Centex isn’t the only company pulling back in Central Texas, which began as early as 2006, said Eldon Rude, local director for residential real estate market researcher Metrostudy.”
“‘The largest public builders are continuing to face significant challenges around the country, especially in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida,’ Rude said. ‘As a result of that, they are looking to all of their divisions all over the country to take part in their move to conserve funds, and so even in some of the healthier markets, like Austin, they are looking to local divisions to buy less land.’”
“A high-profile arts-themed hotel and condominium project will be the first major project for the long-neglected Waller Creek area of downtown, developers announced Wednesday.”
“The 21c Museum Hotel and 21c Museum Residences, originally planned for Third and Brazos streets downtown, will be built on a new, larger site at East Cesar Chavez and Red River streets, along the banks of the creek.”
“‘I’m drinking the Kool-Aid about the whole Waller Creek area,’ said Steve Poe, CEO of the Poe Companies, which is one of the partners in the project. ‘This is the natural progression for the city. People gravitate towards parks and water, and that’s what this is.’”
“The hotel will be followed by a 49-story condominium tower with 295 residential units, and in the future, a 425,00-square-foot tower with offices and shops or more housing, according to the Poe Companies.”
“The condo tower would rank among the tallest being built or planned amid downtown’s residential building boom. A 55-story condo tower, the Austonian, is under construction at Second Street and Congress Avenue. And local developer Tom Stacy plans a 66-story hotel/condominium tower near Sixth and Brazos streets.”
“Austin City Council Sheryl Cole said the 21c project ‘begins to fulfill the promise that Waller Creek will become a world class destination. It is wonderful to already see a major return on our investment.’”
“‘This is like that proverbial place in Central Park in New York City,’ Poe said. ‘That’s what we’re creating.’”
14541 REOs Offered by Countrywide
14541 REO Homes offered for Sale by Countrywide Mortgage according to the Countrywide Foreclosures blog.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
